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Expansion and contraction of leverage during the business cycle
Leverage is defined as the ratio of the asset value to the cash needed to purchase it. The leverage cycle can be defined as the procyclical expansion
Leverage_cycle
Concept asserting ongoing stock market bubble
double down using near-record leverage in quest to boost returns". Reuters. Hedge funds are using near-record levels of leverage to trade equities and betting
AI_bubble
Intervals of expansion and recession in economic activity
Business cycles are intervals of general expansion followed by recession in economic performance. The changes in economic activity that characterize business
Business_cycle
American physicist and entrepreneur (born 1952)
can lead to a cycle in which leverage and prices slowly rise while volatility falls, followed by a crash in which prices and leverage plummet while volatility
J._Doyne_Farmer
American economist
crisis, Geanakoplos' work on the relationship between leverage and asset prices, "The Leverage Cycle," has been prominent in both popular and academic discussions
John_Geanakoplos
Reduction of the ratio of debt to equity
Business cycle Credit crunch Debt deflation Financial crisis Leverage Leverage cycle Liquidity trap Paradox of thrift [1], John Geanakoplos, The Leverage Cycle
Deleveraging
Period of rapid progress in AI
History of artificial intelligence History of artificial neural networks Hype cycle List of artificial intelligence projects List of artificial intelligence
AI_boom
Global stock market crash
bill to reduce the tax benefits associated with financing mergers and leveraged buyouts. Unexpectedly high trade deficit figures announced on October
Black_Monday_(1987)
Global stock market crash
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
2025_stock_market_crash
Sudden collapse of asset values which generates a credit or business cycle
risk-averse trading (de-leveraging), restoring stability and setting up the next cycle. In this more general view, the Minsky cycle may apply to a wide range
Minsky_moment
Tech stock speculative craze, c. 1995–2003
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Dot-com_bubble
Situation in which financial assets suddenly lose a large part of their nominal value
reach of causality is discussed further within Epistemology of finance. Leverage, which means borrowing to finance investments, is frequently cited as a
Financial_crisis
Sudden widespread decline of stock prices
ratios exceed long-term averages, and extensive use of margin debt and leverage by market participants. Other aspects such as wars, large corporate hacks
Stock_market_crash
1760–1840 agrarian to industrial era shift
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Industrial_Revolution
Practice of lowering the intrinsic value of coins
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Debasement
1992 UK financial crisis
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Black_Wednesday
Expansion and contraction of access to credit over time
regard credit cycles as the fundamental process driving the business cycle. However, mainstream economists believe that the credit cycle cannot fully explain
Credit_cycle
Major stock market crash in the United States
resulted in a large number of people placing their savings and money in leverage investment products like Goldman Sachs's "Blue Ridge trust" and "Shenandoah
Wall_Street_crash_of_1929
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
History of the British national debt
History_of_the_British_national_debt
1870–1914 electrical and chemical era
Digital, Inc. 2011. pp. 244–245. ISBN 9780307265722. "The Golden Book of Cycling – William Hume". The Pedal Club. 1938. Archived from the original on 2012-04-03
Second_Industrial_Revolution
before the Great Depression than it has been since the end of World War II." Cycles in the country's agricultural production, industrial production, consumption
List of recessions in the United States
List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States
Perceived financial market movement tendency over time
eventually euphoria as the bull runs its course. This often leads the economic cycle, for example, in a full recession, or earlier. Generally, bull markets begin
Market_trend
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Slave markets and slave jails in the United States
Slave_markets_and_slave_jails_in_the_United_States
1893–97 financial crisis in the United States
"Panic of 1893". In Glasner, David; Cooley, Thomas F. (eds.). Business Cycles and Depressions: an Encyclopedia. New York: Garland Publishing. pp. 516–18
Panic_of_1893
Global oil shortage due to geopolitics
the Syrian border. Independently, the OPEC members agreed to use their leverage over the world price-setting mechanism for oil to stabilize their real
1970s_energy_crisis
Proposed time period of the United States
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Second_Gilded_Age
European selloff of American securities following the outbreak of WWI
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Financial_crisis_of_1914
Unfounded market optimism that lacks fundamental valuation
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Irrational_exuberance
Banking crisis beginning in March 2023
Reynolds, Garfield; Gledhill, Alice (March 14, 2023). "The Great Hiking Cycle Is Seen as Done as Yields Drop Below Cash". Bloomberg. Archived from the
2023 United States banking crisis
2023_United_States_banking_crisis
Regional financial crisis that struck East and Southeast Asia in 1997–1998
resulting large quantities of credit that became available generated a highly leveraged economic climate, and pushed up asset prices to an unsustainable level
1997_Asian_financial_crisis
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Industrial Revolution in the United States
Industrial_Revolution_in_the_United_States
Financial crisis leading to economic depression in Europe and North America
"Crisis of 1873". In Glasner, David; Cooley, Thomas F. (eds.). Business Cycles and Depressions: An Encyclopedia. New York: Garland Publishing. pp. 132–133
Panic_of_1873
Worldwide economic event
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
2022_stock_market_decline
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Economy_of_the_British_Empire
19th-century economic revolution in the United States
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Market_Revolution
Value in economics and accounting
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Real_and_nominal_value
Mass withdrawal of money from banks
and introduces new regulatory requirements on bank liquidity and bank leverage. Full-reserve banking is the hypothetical case where the reserve ratio
Bank_run
Temporary spike in asset prices
that bubbles burst progressively, with the most vulnerable (most highly-leveraged) assets failing first, and then the collapse spreading throughout the
Economic_bubble
Mid-17th to late 19th century revolution centred around agriculture
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
British Agricultural Revolution
British_Agricultural_Revolution
Economic term to distinguish types of recessions
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Recession_shapes
Coldest recorded winter in Europe
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Great_Frost_of_1709
Economies of South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Four_Asian_Tigers
Balance-of-payments crisis in India
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
1991_Indian_economic_crisis
Method of determining when the economy has entered a recession
entered a recession. It is useful in real-time evaluation of the business cycle and relies on monthly unemployment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
Sahm_rule
1980 crash in the U.S. silver market
from about $1.1 billion to about $6.8 billion. A major source of risk was leverage. About half of the Hunt-related position at the end of 1979 was held in
Silver_Thursday
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Slavery_in_Britain
Speculative frenzy in the UK in the 1840s about railways
capital. As with other bubbles, the Railway Mania became a self-promoting cycle based purely on over-optimistic speculation. As the dozens of companies
Railway_Mania
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Financial costs of the Seven Years' War
Financial_costs_of_the_Seven_Years'_War
United States "Business Cycle Council Methodology". C.D. Howe Institute. 23 December 2017. Retrieved 19 December 2023. "BUSINESS CYCLE COUNCIL". C.D. Howe
List_of_recessions_in_Canada
Business cycle contraction
In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction that occurs when there is a period of broad decline in economic activity. Recessions generally
Recession
Gold rush from 1848 to 1855
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
California_gold_rush
Informal economic term
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Economic_miracle
Measure of how revenue growth translates into growth in operating income
Operating leverage is a measure of how revenue growth translates into growth in operating income. It is a measure of leverage, and of how risky, or volatile
Operating_leverage
Economic downturn
adjusted and trend-cycle, last 5 months". Table 14-10-0287-01 Labour force characteristics, monthly, seasonally adjusted and trend-cycle, last 5 months.
Early_1990s_recession
Worldwide increase in crude oil prices following the Iranian Revolution
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
1979_oil_crisis
Financial crisis in the United States
the United States Panic of 1857 Business cycle Keynesian economics Monetary policy Austrian business cycle theory Post-Napoleonic depression Hofstadter
Panic_of_1819
additional Allied troops in a series of naval forays known as Operation Cycle and Operation Ariel. From France's collapse in June 1940 to the German invasion
Canada_in_World_War_II
Engaging in risky financial transactions
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Speculation
19th-century United States financial crisis
"Panic of 1837". In Glasner, David; Cooley, Thomas F. (eds.). Business cycles and depressions: an encyclopedia. New York: Garland Publishing. pp. 514–16
Panic_of_1837
Rate of money changing hands
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Velocity_of_money
Finance property of an asset
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Market_liquidity
Government finance
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Debt_monetization
Industrial shift to information technology
to as "business cycles". There are various types of waves, such as Kondratiev wave (54 years), Kuznets swing (18 years), Juglar cycle (9 years) and Kitchin
Information_Age
Phenomenon when shorter term bonds yield higher interest rates than longer term bonds
Business cycle or Credit cycle when the federal funds rate and treasury interest rates are high to create a hard or soft landing in the cycle. When the
Inverted_yield_curve
four major categories along with their share: Recessions or the business cycle (37%); Policies enacted by President Bush (33%); Policies enacted by President
History of the United States public debt
History_of_the_United_States_public_debt
Australian economic downturn
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Early 1990s recession in Australia
Early_1990s_recession_in_Australia
Proposed era of humanity after the Information Age
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Imagination_Age
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
History of the salt tax in British India
History_of_the_salt_tax_in_British_India
Economic bubble in a stock market
valeurs (French) 2008 financial crisis AI bubble Asset allocation Business cycle Collective behavior Diversification (finance) Dot-com bubble Fictitious
Stock_market_bubble
1701–1714 European great power conflict
history of rebellion. This provided Victor Amadeus II with a degree of leverage, allowing him to manoeuvre between opposing parties to expand his territories
War_of_the_Spanish_Succession
Financial situation where credit/loans become less available/obtainable
During the upward phase in the credit cycle, asset prices may experience bouts of frenzied competitive, leveraged bidding, inducing inflation in a particular
Credit_crunch
Term for 2010s–present technological era
in manufacturing. The Indian program for Industry 4.0 centres around leveraging technology to produce globally competitive products at cost-effective
Fourth_Industrial_Revolution
Significant surplus of crude oil
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
1980s_oil_glut
Percentage of a sum of money charged for its use
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Interest_rate
Sharp worldwide economic downturn in 1958
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Recession_of_1958
Community with sudden economic & population growth
2008-2012 iron ore booms) Altamira, Pará Balsas, Maranhão Belém (Amazon rubber cycle) Brasília, Federal District, development of capital Goiânia, Goiás Laranjal
Boomtown
Periods of currency instability
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Hyperinflation_in_Zimbabwe
Paradox in economics
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Paradox_of_thrift
Rapid fall in security prices within a very short time period
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Flash_crash
18th century period of speculative canal building in the United Kingdom
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Canal_Mania
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Canada_in_World_War_I
Economies of the five dominant countries in Southeast Asia
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Tiger_Cub_Economies
Inflation driven by a rise in the cost of goods and services
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Cost-push_inflation
17-month bear market
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
United States bear market of 2007–2009
United_States_bear_market_of_2007–2009
"FRBNY-Haughwout, Lee, Tracy, and Klaauw-Real Estate Investors, the Leverage Cycle, and the Housing Market Crisis-September 2011-See page 18 and Figures
Causes_of_the_Great_Recession
earlier described the theory of the Powell Lever Motor in his book Powell Leverage Cycle, published in 1922. While continuing to develop additional patents,
Alvah_Leigh_Powell
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
1973–1974_stock_market_crash
Recession that occurred in the early 2000s
beginning of President George W. Bush's term of office. The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee determined that a peak in business activity occurred in
Early_2000s_recession
Gold discovery triggering an onrush of miners seeking fortune
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Gold_rush
Spontaneous spread of behavior or emotions among a group
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Social_contagion
Economic situation with no or low unemployment
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Full_employment
Sustained downturn in economic activity
a slowdown in economic activity over the course of the normal business cycle of a growing economy. Economic depressions may also be characterized by
Economic_depression
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Economic history of the American Civil War
Economic_history_of_the_American_Civil_War
French joint-stock company
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
John_Law's_Company
First American gold rush starting in 1802
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Carolina_gold_rush
Sharp deflationary recession
). Business cycles and depressions: an encyclopedia. New York: Garland Publishing. pp. 151–153. Zarnowitz, Victor (1996). Business Cycles. University
Recession_of_1920–1921
Period of growth in oil extraction, 2006–2015
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
North_Dakota_oil_boom
Period of Indian history (1757–1947)
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
De-industrialisation_of_India
Gold rush in Nome, Alaska, approximately 1899–1909
crisis Liquidity crisis/accounting/capital/funding/market Minsky moment/leverage cycle Stock market crash/Flash crash Social contagion Financial contagion
Nome_Gold_Rush
Recession that affects many countries around the world
the IMF Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions The National Bureau Of Economic Research Independent Analysis of Business Cycle Conditions - American
Global_recession
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LEVERAGE CYCLE
LEVERAGE CYCLE
LEVERAGE CYCLE
LEVERAGE CYCLE
LEVERAGE CYCLE
LEVERAGE CYCLE
LEVERAGE CYCLE
LEVERAGE CYCLE
LEVERAGE CYCLE
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