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Personal cognitive bias
The overconfidence effect is a cognitive bias in which a person's subjective confidence in their judgments is reliably greater than the objective accuracy
Overconfidence_effect
Cognitive bias about one's own skill
Dunning–Kruger effect Curse of knowledge – Cognitive bias of assuming others share your knowledge Easiness effect – Epistemic overconfidence instilled by
Dunning–Kruger_effect
Attributional type of cognitive bias
false consensus is significant because it increases self-esteem (overconfidence effect). This bias is especially prevalent in group settings where one
False_consensus_effect
Cognitive bias relating to mis-estimating success based on perceived difficulty
'cognitive overconfidence bias' is mediated by selective attention to particular data sets". One specific point they made was that the hard-easy effect is almost
Hard–easy_effect
Cognitive bias
usually pervasive better-than-average effect (in contexts where the two are compared or the overconfidence effect in other situations). It has been proposed
Worse-than-average_effect
Cognitive bias
Overestimation of abilities compared to an objective measure is known as the overconfidence effect. The term "illusory superiority" was first used by the researchers
Illusory_superiority
homogeneity effect Overconfidence effect Overjustification effect Peltzman effect Perruchet effect Picture superiority effect Placebo effect Pluralistic ignorance
List_of_psychological_effects
misinterprets data in order to find it (see also subject-expectancy effect). Overconfidence effect, a tendency to have excessive confidence in one's own answers
List_of_cognitive_biases
Tendency to base judgments on an irrelevant anchor
association with anchoring susceptibility. Overconfidence is significantly associated with the anchoring effect. It refers specifically to the tendency for
Anchoring_effect
Australian conservationist (1962–2006)
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Steve_Irwin
Special forces unit of the British Army
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Special_Air_Service
Tendency to remember pleasant things better
and decision making List of memory biases Optimism bias Overconfidence effect Positivity effect Positivity offset Reality principle Rosy retrospection
Pollyanna_principle
2006 animal encounter accident
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Death_of_Steve_Irwin
Severely deficient supply of oxygen
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Asphyxia
Excessive concern for one's own appearance or importance
to Vanity. Confidence Dunning–Kruger effect Grandiose delusions Haughtiness Icarus complex Overconfidence effect Self-serving bias Bonfire of the Vanities
Vanity
American engineer, vintner, and former NASA astronaut
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
José_M._Hernández
English broadcaster and natural historian (born 1926)
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
David_Attenborough
Hypothesis about depression
PMID 2926638. Dunning D, Story AL (1991). "Depression, realism, and the overconfidence effect: are the sadder wiser when predicting future actions and events
Depressive_realism
(Soft matter) (Fluid dynamics) Overconfidence effect (cognitive biases) (psychological theories) Overjustification effect (educational psychology) (psychological
List_of_effects
Special forces unit of the Royal Navy
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Special_Boat_Service
2018 international rescue mission in Thailand
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Tham_Luang_cave_rescue
Feeling of trust in someone or something
affect the measure of one's confidence, such as the hard/easy effect, and overconfidence bias. Some methods measure self-esteem and self-confidence in
Confidence
French oceanographer and author (1910–1997)
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Jacques_Cousteau
Extreme pride or overconfidence
frequently hybris (/ˈhaɪbrɪs/), is extreme or excessive pride or dangerous overconfidence and complacency, often in combination with (or synonymous with) arrogance
Hubris
Toxic effects of breathing oxygen at high partial pressures
nervous system condition was called the Paul Bert effect, and the pulmonary condition the Lorrain Smith effect, after the researchers who pioneered the discoveries
Oxygen_toxicity
American engineer, astronaut, and naval aviator (born 1964)
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Scott_Kelly_(astronaut)
Techniques requiring specific equipment and procedures
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Modes_of_underwater_diving
Disorder caused by dissolved gases forming bubbles in tissues
bubbles. Endothelial damage may be a mechanical effect of bubble pressure on the vessel walls, a toxic effect of stabilised platelet aggregates and possibly
Decompression_sickness
U.S. Navy's special operations force
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
United_States_Navy_SEALs
Systematic pattern of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment
(better-than-average effect) and worse-than-average effect, subadditivity effect, exaggerated expectation, overconfidence, and the hard–easy effect. People do appear
Cognitive_bias
Death of bone tissue due to interruption of the blood supply
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Avascular_necrosis
British science fiction writer (1917–2008)
was credited to Clarke alone. Clarke later complained that this had the effect of making the book into a novelisation, and that Kubrick had manipulated
Arthur_C._Clarke
American novelist and underwater explorer (1931–2020)
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Clive_Cussler
Form of cognitive bias
coined by Yale researchers Leonid Rozenblit and Frank Keil in 2002. The effect was observed in only one type of knowledge called explanatory knowledge
Illusion_of_explanatory_depth
Human body core temperature below 35 °C (95 °F)
assumed to have been subjected to sexual assault. One explanation for the effect is a cold-induced malfunction of the hypothalamus, the part of the brain
Hypothermia
British ocean liner (1907–1915)
passenger vessels should be deliberately targeted, so as to create a "shock effect". There was a fierce debate within Germany, as officials were keenly aware
RMS_Lusitania
Organ system for circulating blood in animals
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Circulatory_system
Founder(s) maintaining disproportionate control
control Management style Micromanagement Organizational culture Overconfidence effect Peter principle Greathouse, John. "Do You Have 'Founderitis'? In
Founder's_syndrome
Semi-submersible offshore drilling rig
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Byford_Dolphin
Unplanned drop in the pressure of a sealed system
pressurised DC-9. A single shot through the side or the window did not have any effect – it took actual explosives to cause explosive decompression – suggesting
Uncontrolled_decompression
Water current moving away from shore
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Rip_current
Chamber for transporting divers vertically through the water
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Diving_bell
Facility for supporting saturation diving projects
nasal effect, and a linear shift of vocal resonances which is a function of the velocity of sound in the gas, known as the Donald Duck effect. Another
Saturation_diving_system
Pirate Blackbeard's ship
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Queen_Anne's_Revenge
US government scientific agency
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National_Oceanic_and_Atmospheric_Administration
Psychological complex
(psychology) Confidence Dunning–Kruger effect Grandiose delusions Haughtiness Hubris Narcissism Overconfidence effect Self-serving bias Vanity Napoleon complex
Icarus_complex
American astronaut and aquanaut (1925–2013)
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Scott_Carpenter
German filmmaker (1902–2003)
framing of the flags encapsulated its iconography. Saunders continues, "The effect is a significant double transformation: the images mechanize human beings
Leni_Riefenstahl
Medical condition of lack of oxygen in the tissues
restriction of oxygen to the brain for sexual arousal Fink effect, also known as diffusion hypoxia – Effect of anesthesia G-LOC – Loss of consciousness due to
Hypoxia_(medicine)
English Tudor warship (1511–1545)
and canister shot packed with sharp flints produced a devastating shotgun effect. Trials made with replicas of culverins and port pieces showed that they
Mary_Rose
Australian anesthesiologist and cave diver
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Richard_Harris_(anaesthetist)
Diving incident in the Maldives
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
2026 Dhekunu Kandu cave diving incident
2026_Dhekunu_Kandu_cave_diving_incident
Equipment used to facilitate underwater diving
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Diving_equipment
Reduction of the negative effects of cognitive biases
breaking their own rules, apparently under the influence of the overconfidence effect, the sunk cost fallacy, the availability heuristic, and perhaps
Cognitive_bias_mitigation
Technique for equalising pressure in the middle ears
Return of cardiac output Blood return to the heart is enhanced by the effect of the entry of blood that has been dammed back, causing a rapid increase
Valsalva_maneuver
USMC deep reconnaissance unit
Capewell canopy release which provided a cut-away to reduce the deadly effect of drag. The T-10 became the most frequented parachute; which had two variants
United States Marine Corps Force Reconnaissance
United_States_Marine_Corps_Force_Reconnaissance
Positive effect from the perceived value of a person
Psychological complex Narcissism – Self-centered personality style Overconfidence effect – Personal cognitive bias Selfishness – Concern for self above that
Pride
Change in sea level due to gravity
geometry of ocean basins, continental boundaries, bathymetry, the coriolis effect, frictional dissipation within shallow seas and the tidal resonance of coastlines
Tide
Discrepancy of the lack of evidence for alien life despite its apparent likelihood
Almost all arguments involving the Drake equation suffer from the overconfidence effect, a common error of probabilistic reasoning about low-probability
Fermi_paradox
Inclination for or against
between two events or situations). Confirmation biases contribute to overconfidence in personal beliefs and can maintain or strengthen beliefs in the face
Bias
Swedish and American marine biologist and NASA astronaut
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Jessica_Meir
Irish safety freediver (1977-2017)
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Stephen_Keenan
Distraction technique and anti-debate tactic
communication norms within academic settings. Angry black woman Fallacy Overconfidence effect Ratchet (slang) Respectability politics Righteous indignation Hugs
Tone_policing
U.S. Navy officer and NASA astronaut (born 1965)
inspires IIT Delhi with reflections on space, teamwork and the 'overview effect'". The Tribune. Retrieved January 23, 2026. "Dog Whisperer: Astronaut Dogs
Sunita_Williams
Italian freediver (born 1992)
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Alessia_Zecchini
US Navy special operations group
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Underwater_Demolition_Team
Set of detailed instructions to assist in workplace safety
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Standard_operating_procedure
Subtype of delusion
Messiah complex Put on airs Dunning–Kruger effect Haughtiness Hubris Icarus complex Overconfidence effect Vanity Chūnibyō Ray Corsini (2016). The Dictionary
Delusions_of_grandeur
British cave diver who specialises in rescues
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Rick_Stanton
Special forces unit of the Australian Army
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Special_Air_Service_Regiment
Hypothetical global-scale disaster risk
heuristic, the conjunction fallacy, the affect heuristic, and the overconfidence effect. Scope insensitivity influences how bad people consider the extinction
Global_catastrophic_risk
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
List of diving equipment manufacturers
List_of_diving_equipment_manufacturers
Tactical scuba diver
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Frogman
Canadian astronaut (born 1959)
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Chris_Hadfield
Retired US Navy officer and professor of oceanography (born 1942)
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Robert_Ballard
Respiratory impairment caused by submersion in liquid
certain poisonous vapors or gases (as in chemical warfare) can have a similar effect. The reaction can take place up to 72 hours after the initial incident and
Drowning
Toxic effects of carbon monoxide
to all sites. Delivery of oxygen is largely driven by the Bohr effect and Haldane effect. To provide a simplified synopsis of the molecular mechanism of
Carbon_monoxide_poisoning
Outcrop of rock in the sea formed by the growth and deposit of stony coral skeletons
process and substantial evidence of the technique having a significant effect on coral reef growth, coral nurseries became the most widespread and arguably
Coral_reef
Term in cognitive studies
people who are considered failures. In 2002, Boen et al. demonstrated this effect in a political context. They examined houses with at least a poster or lawn
Basking_in_reflected_glory
Portable apparatus to recycle breathing gas
the absorbent surface, and require a longer dwell time. Because of this effect, the scrubber must be bigger for deep diving than is needed for a shallow-water
Rebreather
Royal Navy frogman and MI6 diver
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Lionel_Crabb
Statistical property
under non-linear transformations, though median-unbiasedness is (see § Effect of transformations); for example, the sample variance is a biased estimator
Bias_of_an_estimator
Canadian astronaut, circled the Moon in 2026 (born 1976)
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Jeremy_Hansen
Crewed full ocean depth rated submersible
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
DSV_Limiting_Factor
Underwater assault rifle
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
QBS-06
Submersible that traveled to the Challenger Deep
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Deepsea_Challenger
British volunteer cave rescue diver
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
John_Volanthen
German manufacturer of breathing equipment
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Dräger_(company)
Theory of behavioral economics
different type of cognitive bias which is observed for example in the overconfidence effect. The theory describes the decision processes in two stages: During
Prospect_theory
Underwater diving where divers are paid for their work
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Professional_diving
Possibility of something bad happening
of thinking statistically, people are typically subject to the overconfidence effect in their judgements, tending to overestimate their understanding
Risk
Special operations unit of the Israeli Navy
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Shayetet_13
Acoustic sensing method
Particularly when single frequency transmissions are used, the Doppler effect can be used to measure the radial speed of a target. The difference in frequency
Sonar
Simple strategies or mental processes involved in making quick decisions
lower bounds too close to their best estimate. This leads to an overconfidence effect. One much-replicated finding is that when people are 98% certain
Heuristic_(psychology)
American physician and novelist (born 1940)
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Robin Cook (American novelist)
Robin_Cook_(American_novelist)
American astronaut, circled the Moon in 2026 (born 1975)
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Reid_Wiseman
Australian technical diver (1954–2005)
Uncontrolled decompression Diver behaviour and competence Incompetence Overconfidence effect Panic Task loading Trait anxiety Willful violation Consequences
Dave_Shaw
Injury due to pressure difference between gas filled space and adjoining tissue
diver into the rigid helmet, which can result in severe trauma. The same effect can result from a large and rapid increase in depth if the air supply is
Barotrauma
Breakdown in empathy
motor cortex) for outgroup members, compared to in-group members. This effect was magnified by prejudice and toward disliked groups (i.e. South-Asians
Empathy_gap
Human emotional need
critic Invisible support Law of Jante Optimism bias Outline of self Overconfidence effect Passiveness Self-affirmation Self-enhancement Self-esteem functions
Self-esteem
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