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Psychological effect
The certainty effect is the psychological effect resulting from the reduction of probability from certain to probable (Tversky & Kahneman 1986). It is
Certainty_effect
Cognitive bias
certainty effect, the pseudocertainty effect was discovered from an attempt at providing a normative use of decision theory for the certainty effect by
Pseudocertainty_effect
Example of irrational preferences over lotteries
The certainty effect highlights the appeal of a zero-variance lottery. Recent studies have indicated an alternate explanation to the certainty effect called
Allais_paradox
Bias in which choices are influenced by the options' connotations
significant than the equivalent gain, that a sure gain (certainty effect and pseudocertainty effect) is favored over a probabilistic gain, and that a probabilistic
Framing_effect_(psychology)
Theory of behavioral economics
type of cognitive bias which is observed for example in the overconfidence effect. The theory describes the decision processes in two stages: During an initial
Prospect_theory
Legal principle
Regressive Effect of Legal Uncertainty, The Journal of Dispute Resolution, 2019. Maxeiner, James R. (Fall 2008). "Some realism about legal certainty in globalization
Legal_certainty
Economics theory
loss of 4,000 to a certain loss of 3,000. The reflection effect (as well as the certainty effect) is inconsistent with the expected utility hypothesis.
Risk_aversion
Probabilistic optimal control
discrete-time centralized systems with only additive uncertainty is the certainty equivalence property: that the optimal control solution in this case is
Stochastic_control
outcome; this is called the reflection effect because it leads to the opposite result of the certainty effect. Previous studies focusing on description-based
Description-experience_gap
PMID 13084849. Fischhoff B, Slovic P, Lichtenstein S (1977). "Knowing with certainty: The appropriateness of extreme confidence". Journal of Experimental Psychology:
List_of_cognitive_biases
substantial certainty doctrine is the assumption of intent even if the actor did not intend the result, but knew with substantial certainty the effect would
Substantial certainty doctrine
Substantial_certainty_doctrine
Electromagnetic effect in physics
The fractional quantum Hall effect (fractional QHE or FQHE) is the observation of precisely quantized plateaus in the Hall conductance of 2-dimensional
Fractional quantum Hall effect
Fractional_quantum_Hall_effect
How one process influences another
process, state, or object (i.e., an effect) where the cause is at least partly responsible for the effect, and the effect is at least partly dependent on
Causality
Cognitive bias
have a certainty equivalent (that is itself, a loss). This means that accepting a certain loss that is less in absolute value than the certainty equivalent
Disposition_effect
Concept in decision theory
above is that it has a ‘certainty effect’, that the outcomes without probabilities (determined in advance) will make a larger effect on the utility functions
Lottery_(decision_theory)
Method of assessing the certainty in evidence
Evaluation) is a method of assessing the certainty in evidence (also known as quality of evidence or confidence in effect estimates) and the strength of recommendations
GRADE_approach
Summit of spiritual path in mystic Islam
Yaqeen (Arabic: یقین) is generally translated as "certainty", and is considered the summit of the many stations by which the path of walaya (sometimes
Yaqeen
Rejection of certain ideas about reality
exist. One argument in favor of radical skepticism asserts that absolute certainty is required for knowledge. It attempts to show that doubt can never be
Nihilism
Personal cognitive bias
performance relative to others; and (3) overprecision in expressing unwarranted certainty in the accuracy of one's beliefs. The most common way in which overconfidence
Overconfidence_effect
Theory in political science and media studies
original). and (4) one of the common grounds of CNN effect is policy uncertainty; as policy certainty reduces, media influence increases and vice versa
CNN_effect
Certainty in English law sets out rules for how judges will interpret, sever or put contracts, trusts and other voluntary obligations into effect. If
Certainty_in_English_law
1980 book by Morris Kline
Mathematics: The Loss of Certainty is a book by Morris Kline on the developing perspectives within mathematical cultures throughout the centuries. This
Mathematics: The Loss of Certainty
Mathematics:_The_Loss_of_Certainty
Behavioural effect
A woman goes to her doctor with a problem. The doctor diagnoses with certainty, and then clearly explains the diagnosis and the expected route towards
Subject-expectancy_effect
Quantum mechanical phenomenon
Classically, the electron would either transmit or reflect with 100% certainty, depending on its energy. In 1928 J. Robert Oppenheimer published two
Quantum_tunnelling
Concept in economics
payoff ($50), many people choose the guaranteed $50 because they value the certainty of the smaller reward more than the possibility of a larger one, reflecting
Expected_utility_hypothesis
Use of punishment as a threat to deter people from offending
first being the certainty of punishment, by increasing the likelihood of apprehension and punishment, this may have a deterrent effect. The second relates
Deterrence_(penology)
History of the development of microeconomics as a study
in comparison with outcomes that are obtained with certainty. This tendency, called certainty effect, contributes to risk aversion in choices involving
History_of_microeconomics
Mathematical index used in Bayesian statistics
probability of direction (pd) is a measure of effect existence representing the certainty with which an effect is positive or negative. This index is numerically
Probability_of_direction
Theory of response to surprise events
will occur with great certainty. According to Taleb, the pandemic was not a black swan, as it was expected with great certainty that a global pandemic
Black_swan_theory
Autonomy granted through headphones
The Walkman effect is the way music listened to via headphones grants the listener more control over their environment. The term was coined by Shuhei Hosokawa [ja]
Walkman_effect
Psychological sensation and phenomenon
are associated with a mild form of epilepsy, and, though by no means a certainty, déjà vu, along with jamais vu, occurs often enough during seizures (such
Déjà_vu
Theory in economics
can give a country a stable revenue stream, improving the year-to-year certainty of revenues. Also, a country can provide for future generations by setting
Dutch_disease
Influence of forensic science fiction on public perceptions
to use terms that are less definite, which acknowledges that absolute certainty is often not possible. Anthony E. Zuiker, creator of the CSI franchise
CSI_effect
Postulated future astronomical event
currently colliding with the Milky Way and being merged into it. The certainty, as well as the timescale for such a collision, have since been questioned
Andromeda–Milky_Way_collision
Principle in European Union law
horizontal effect (against another private individual or company), as this is adjudged contrary to the principles of legality and legal certainty (see Marshall
Direct effect of European Union law
Direct_effect_of_European_Union_law
Situations involving imperfect or unknown information
have defined uncertainty, risk, and their measurement as: The lack of certainty, a state of limited knowledge where it is impossible to exactly describe
Uncertainty
1994 American film
The Coriolis Effect is a 1994 short black-and-white film starring James Wilder, Jennifer Rubin, Dana Ashbrook and Corinne Bohrer, featuring a voice-only
The_Coriolis_Effect
Decision strategy
such as the Allais paradox, the four-fold pattern, the certainty effect, the possibility effect, or intransitivities. The heuristic maps onto Rubinstein’s
Priority_heuristic
Scientific projections regarding the far future
While the future cannot be predicted with certainty, present understanding in various scientific fields allows for the prediction of some far-future events
Timeline_of_the_far_future
Effect of environs on individual people, as effected at the neighborhood level
neighborhood effect is an economic and social science concept that posits that neighbourhoods have either a direct or an indirect effect on individual
Neighbourhood_effect
Sermon by Jonathan Edwards (1741)
preached to his own congregation in Northampton, Massachusetts, to profound effect, and again on July 8, 1741, in Enfield, Connecticut. The preaching of this
Sinners in the Hands of an Angry God
Sinners_in_the_Hands_of_an_Angry_God
English legal case 1840
law case, embodying a simple statement of the "three certainties" principle. This has the effect of determining whether assets can be disposed of in wills
Knight_v_Knight
Hindu tradition of textual interpretation
ISBN 978-1-898723-66-0.[permanent dead link] John W. Pettit (1999). Mipham's Beacon of Certainty: Illuminating the View of Dzogchen, the Great Perfection. Simon and Schuster
Advaita_Vedanta
German-born theoretical physicist (1879–1955)
that: "If, without in any way disturbing a system, we can predict with certainty (i.e., with probability equal to unity) the value of a physical quantity
Albert_Einstein
Interpretation of sensory information
Learning, London: RoutledgeFalmer; Poerksen, Bernhard (ed.) (2004), The Certainty of Uncertainty: Dialogues Introducing Constructivism, Exeter: Imprint
Perception
according to Lom. "An escalation in the number of deaths is almost a certainty," according to William Hyde, Jakarta-based emergency relief coordinator
Effect of the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake on Indonesia
Effect_of_the_2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake_on_Indonesia
Concept in inferential statistics
thresholds set at a much stricter level (for example 5σ). For instance, the certainty of the Higgs boson particle's existence was based on the 5σ criterion
Statistical_significance
Equations of motion for viscous fluids
the flow is affected by inertia). It is believed, though not known with certainty, that the Navier–Stokes equations describe turbulence properly. The numerical
Navier–Stokes_equations
Physics phenomenon
can predict with certainty that Bob's result will be 1. Likewise, if she obtains the outcome 1, then she can predict with certainty that Bob's result
Quantum_entanglement
Method of identifying the fundamental causes of faults or problems
factor can benefit an outcome, it does not prevent its recurrence with certainty. A great way to look at the proactive/reactive picture is to consider
Root-cause_analysis
Type of confirmation bias
they could have predicted or perhaps even known with a high degree of certainty what the outcome of the event would be before it occurred. Hindsight bias
Hindsight_bias
Catastrophic earthquake that primarily affected Lisbon, Portugal
foundational certainty of René Descartes' philosophy began to shake following the Lisbon earthquake. The earthquake had a major effect on politics. The
1755_Lisbon_earthquake
Examples of the butterfly effect
Havana and The Butterfly Effect mischaracterize the butterfly effect by asserting the effect can be calculated with certainty, because this is the opposite
Butterfly effect in popular culture
Butterfly_effect_in_popular_culture
Hallucinogenic class of psychoactive drug
Psychedelics are a subclass of hallucinogenic drugs whose primary effect is to trigger non-ordinary mental states (known as psychedelic experiences or
Psychedelic_drug
Historical critique of quantum mechanics
that: "If, without in any way disturbing a system, we can predict with certainty (i.e., with probability equal to unity) the value of a physical quantity
Einstein–Podolsky–Rosen paradox
Einstein–Podolsky–Rosen_paradox
Cognitive tendency where lack of information affects decision making
The ambiguity effect is a cognitive tendency where decision making is affected by a lack of information, or "ambiguity". The effect implies that people
Ambiguity_effect
Epistemic overconfidence instilled by pop-sci oversimplifications
The easiness effect is the claim that as a result of science popularization laypeople develop an overconfident scientific understanding. This results in
Easiness_effect
State of low mood and aversion to activity
evidence was of very low certainty, and some participants were more likely to drop out of therapy. There was no clear effect on symptoms, with only short
Depression_(mood)
Doubt about God's existence
to skepticism and fallibilism, which deny that knowledge or absolute certainty is possible. Various arguments for and against agnosticism are discussed
Agnosticism
Shorthand used in statistics
and thus it is empirically useful to treat 99.7% probability as near certainty. In the social sciences, a result may be considered statistically significant
68–95–99.7_rule
Unscientific healthcare practices
ethical clinical trials, producing repeatable evidence of either effect or of no effect, alternative therapies reside outside of mainstream medicine and
Alternative_medicine
128-bit number used to identify information in computer systems
can create large numbers of UUIDs and use them as identifiers with near certainty that they do not duplicate UUIDs that have been, or will be, created by
Universally_unique_identifier
costs of delay in making a reference outweighed the benefits from total certainty. By contrast, in ParkingEye Ltd v Beavis, a majority of the Supreme Court
Law_of_the_European_Union
Free online crowdsourced encyclopedia
by their IP addresses cannot be attributed to a particular editor with certainty. New editors often struggle to understand Wikipedia's complexity. Experienced
Wikipedia
Coordinate system using perpendicular axes
Philosophy Cartesianism Rationalism Foundationalism Mechanism Doubt and certainty Existence of God Dream argument Cogito, ergo sum Evil demon Trademark
Cartesian_coordinate_system
Fictional character
Kaidan Alenko is a fictional character in BioWare's Mass Effect franchise, who acts as a party member (or "squadmate") in the first and third games in
Kaidan_Alenko
Principles applied by European courts
Union law the general principle of legal certainty prohibits retroactive laws: laws should not take effect before they are published. The general principle
General principles of European Union law
General_principles_of_European_Union_law
Overview of the effects of cars on various societies
would continue to persist, as it did in the 1950s and 1960s, no such certainty existed at the time when British architect Martin Pawley authored his
Societal_effects_of_cars
Parental expenditure that benefits offspring
grandchildren, especially the children of their daughters, because maternal certainty of their own children is high, and their daughters are certain of their
Parental_investment
Canadian bridge from Prince Edward Island to the mainland
for the steam service referred to in this Schedule... That, for greater certainty, nothing in this Schedule prevents the imposition of tolls for the use
Confederation_Bridge
1999 mass shooting in Colorado, U.S.
history", but the motive has never been ascertained with any degree of certainty. In a letter provided with the May 15 report on the Columbine attack,
Columbine High School massacre
Columbine_High_School_massacre
Removal of the human foreskin
parts of Southern Africa. The origin of circumcision is not known with certainty, but the oldest documentation comes from ancient Egypt. Approximately
Circumcision
Aspect of learning procedure
"predicts" that the US may occur. Still, the room predicts with much less certainty than does the experimental CS itself, because the room is also there between
Classical_conditioning
Law created by judicial precedent
criticised as giving too much power to unelected officials, predicating legal certainty upon the nature and volume of cases litigated, and allowing for retrospective
Common_law
Status given to some Scientologists
Hubbard states that merely knowing what the cognition is does not have the effect of realizing it for oneself: Now, we've known for a long time that a thetan
Clear_(Scientology)
Area of healthcare that focuses on relieving and preventing suffering
these interventions for older people dying in these facilities. High-certainty evidence supports the finding that implementation of home-based end-of-life
Palliative_care
science-based regulation of [agricultural biotechnology]." Section 733 provides certainty to growers with respect to their planting decisions. If enacted, growers
Farmer_Assurance_Provision
Psychoactive drug, often called ecstasy
compared to psychotherapy alone, but the evidence is low to very low certainty and safety data are limited, with some increased transient adverse events
MDMA
Concept in communication studies
occurrence. Two requires that certainty is not dependent on external factors which can undermine its validity. Certainty must be a concept which is pushed
Vested interest (communication theory)
Vested_interest_(communication_theory)
Potential business transaction
Skydance offer in favor of its agreement with Netflix, citing greater certainty and financial terms. The board subsequently rejected the bid and advised
Proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery by Paramount Skydance
Proposed_acquisition_of_Warner_Bros._Discovery_by_Paramount_Skydance
US government medical review and recommendation panel
each grade. The Task Force also defined levels of certainty regarding net benefit. Levels of certainty vary from high to low according to the evidence.
United States Preventive Services Task Force
United_States_Preventive_Services_Task_Force
Awareness of facts
which implies a substantial commitment to the believed claim. It involves certainty in the form of being sure about it. For declarative knowledge, this stronger
Declarative_knowledge
Great Comet of 1997
difficult to predict the maximum brightness of new comets with any degree of certainty, but Hale–Bopp exceeded most predictions when it passed perihelion on
Comet_Hale–Bopp
Elementary particle involved with rest mass
they did not discuss their results with each other, providing additional certainty that any common finding was genuine validation of a particle. This level
Higgs_boson
Ongoing case at the International Court of Justice
Buchwald there is a "gap between plausibility and the much higher level of certainty that the Applicant will eventually need to satisfy in order to establish
South Africa's genocide case against Israel
South_Africa's_genocide_case_against_Israel
Pharaoh of Egypt from 51 to 30 BC
Francisco Pina Polo writes that Cleopatra's coinage present her image with certainty and asserts that the sculpted portrait of the Berlin head is confirmed
Cleopatra
Island and region in Indonesia
resulted in their interment, but population is difficult to approximate with certainty. This site is quite far from the north coast of Java Island, and it is
Java
1968 U.S. war crime during the Vietnam War
Vietnam, the number of civilians killed at Mỹ Lai cannot be stated with certainty. Estimates vary from source to source, with 347 and 504 being the most
My_Lai_massacre
Agreement between two or more people to commit a crime at some time in the future
development by the courts in ways which might offend the principle of certainty. There was an additional problem that it could be a criminal conspiracy
Criminal_conspiracy
2024 European Union agreement
Pact, is a set of new European Union rules concerning migration that took effect on 12 June 2026. It compels member states to more evenly share the cost
New Pact on Migration and Asylum
New_Pact_on_Migration_and_Asylum
experiments to determine whether prayer or intercessory prayer has a measurable effect on the health of the person for whom prayer is offered. First-person studies
Efficacy_of_prayer
Legally binding document establishing rights and duties between parties
consideration, arguing that elimination of the doctrine "bring[s] about greater certainty and reduce litigation" in international trade. The Principles also rejected
Contract
Soft-bodied, aquatic invertebrates
with giant jellyfish". 26 April 2010. "How do jellyfish reproduce? What effect does their sting have on humans? What's the difference between red and translucent
Jellyfish
2011 book by Daniel Kahneman
underestimate the role of chance in particular. This is related to the excessive certainty of hindsight, when an event seems to be understood after it has occurred
Thinking,_Fast_and_Slow
Problematic excessive alcohol consumption
day, however evidence for such a conclusion comes from low to moderate certainty evidence "so should be regarded with caution". Others include LifeRing
Alcoholism
English philosophy
in the morning", and "all bodies have mass". Hume wants to prove that certainty does not exist in science. First, Hume notes that statements of the second
Hume's_fork
duration by about two days, though the evidence was of low to very low certainty. Zinc offered minimal benefit in preventing infections and was associated
Zinc_and_the_common_cold
ISBN 9781476739700. Soltis, Andy (2019). "Out on a limb; What level of certainty do you need to confidently play a move?". Chess Life. United States Chess
Glossary_of_chess
Personality model consisting of five broad dimensions
For instance, neuroticism is connected to pessimism toward work, to certainty that work hinders personal relationships, and to higher levels of anxiety
Big_Five_personality_traits
Metabolic disease involving abnormal deposited amyloid proteins
mutant TTR protein to prevent its buildup, like how tafamidis works. Low-certainty evidence indicates that it mitigates worsening of peripheral neuropathy
Amyloidosis
CERTAINTY EFFECT
CERTAINTY EFFECT
Girl/Female
Arabic, Muslim
Stability; Firmness; Certainty; Boldness; Truth; Endurance
Boy/Male
Arabic
Certain; Strong; Firm
Boy/Male
Arabic, Muslim
Firmness; Stability; Certainty; Endurance; Boldness; Truth
Girl/Female
Tamil
Nischitha | நீஸà¯à®šà¯€à®¤à®¾Â
Certainty, Confidence
Nischitha | நீஸà¯à®šà¯€à®¤à®¾Â
Girl/Female
Hindu
Certainty, Confidence
Boy/Male
Hindu, Indian
Certain or for Sure
Girl/Female
Arabic, Muslim
Certain; Firm
Boy/Male
Indian
Certain
Girl/Female
Indian
Confident, Sure, Certain
Girl/Female
Spanish
Certain fortune; fate.
Boy/Male
Arabic, Muslim
Confident; Sure; Certain
Boy/Male
Bengali, Hindu, Indian
Certain; Eternal
Girl/Female
Muslim
Confident, Sure, Certain
Boy/Male
Indian
Certain
Male
Chamoru
, certainly, truly.
Boy/Male
Tamil
The enduring sound, Heaven, Certainly, Eternally
Boy/Male
Hindu
The enduring sound, Heaven, Certainly, Eternally
Surname or Lastname
French
French : nickname from certain ‘certain’, ‘resolute’, a derivative of Old French certise ‘certitude’.English : variant spelling of Sartain, cognate with 1.
Girl/Female
Tamil
Nischita | நீஸà¯à®šà¯€à®¤à®¾
Certainty, Confidence
Nischita | நீஸà¯à®šà¯€à®¤à®¾
Girl/Female
Hindu
Certainty, Confidence
CERTAINTY EFFECT
CERTAINTY EFFECT
Girl/Female
Indian, Sanskrit
Beauty; Shrine
Male
Native American
Native American Sioux name WAHKAN means "sacred."
Boy/Male
African, Gujarati, Hindu, Indian
Lord of Lotuses; Sun
Male
Celtic
, the dread (tutelary) divinity of the country.
Surname or Lastname
English
English : nickname for someone who was in the habit of going about his business unshod, from Old English bær ‘bare’, ‘naked’ + fÅt ‘foot’. It may have referred to a peasant unable to afford even the simplest type of footwear, or to someone who went barefoot as a religious penance.In some instances, probably a translation of German Barfuss, the northern form Barfoth, or the Danish cognate Barfo(e)d.
Boy/Male
Muslim/Islamic
Slave of the Powerful
Girl/Female
Arabic, Muslim
Preserved; Strong
Girl/Female
Hindu, Indian, Telugu
Pure; Holly
Boy/Male
Arabic, Indian, Muslim, Parsi
Lucky; Fortunate
Boy/Male
Bengali, Hindu, Indian
Small Boy
CERTAINTY EFFECT
CERTAINTY EFFECT
CERTAINTY EFFECT
CERTAINTY EFFECT
CERTAINTY EFFECT
n.
The quality, state, or condition, of being certain.
pl.
of Certainty
n.
Certainty.
n.
Clearness; freedom from ambiguity; lucidity.
a.
Not specifically named; indeterminate; indefinite; one or some; -- sometimes used independenty as a noun, and meaning certain persons.
n.
That which is uncertain; something unknown.
adv.
In a sure or certain manner; certainly; infallibly; undoubtedly; assuredly.
n.
The quality or state of being uncertain.
a.
Assured in mind; having no doubts; free from suspicions concerning.
a.
Actually existing; sure to happen; inevitable.
n.
A certain number or quantity.
n.
Uncertainty.
adv.
Certainly.
a.
Fixed or stated; regular; determinate.
a.
Not to be doubted or denied; established as a fact.
n.
Certainty.
adv.
Without doubt or question; unquestionably.
a.
Unfailing; infallible.
n.
A fact or truth unquestionable established.
a.
Determined; resolved; -- used with an infinitive.